Ein disaggregiertes Prognosesystem für die Bundesrepublik by Dr. Manfred Kiy (auth.)

By Dr. Manfred Kiy (auth.)

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In vie len Fallen kann man deshal b durch eine geeignete Spezifizierung der lag-Struktur des Modells Inkonsistenzen von vornherein vermeiden. - Der Rechenaufwand von Einzelschatzverfahren - insbesondere OLS - ist im Gegensatz zu Systemschatzern auBerst gering. Da bei Systemschatzverfahren jeweils die Varianz - Kovarianz - Matrix der Residuen invertiert werden muB, wachst hier der Speicher platz- und Rechenzeitbedarf quadratisch mit der Zahl der Gleichungen. Z. existierenden Vorausgesetzt, die Gleichungen Form vor.

Wegen fehlenden Datenmaterials fUr eine endogene Erkliirung -, aber nicht in 1) Hinsicht auf vorher festgelegte Untersuchungsziele diese Vorgehensweise ist die Aussage von Krelle: kannen, Charakteristisch fUr "Was alle Modelle leisten sind bedingte Prognosen, niimlich Schiitzung der endogenen GraBen bei Vorgabe der exogenen und der Instrumentvariablen. " 2 exogenen Die Variablen des Disaggregierten Prognosemodells ergeben sich aus bisher teilweise bzw. vollstiindig fehlenden Modellteilen, deren Bearbeitung aufgrund von Datenproblemen und mangelnder theoretischer Grundlagen auf einen spiiteren Zeitpunkt verschoben worden ist.

J. 1 Spaltensummen der Matrix des Folgejahres t 1 • so ergeben sich die Felderwerte von Xt1 nach der Vorschrift X :=[(xo t/xo t ) ' ( X o t / x o t )] t 1]. 1 1.. 1 1.. 0 ·J· 1 ·J. t O 1974 sind die originiir erhobenen Tabellen der Jahre 1967 und 1972 als Basismatrizen verwendet worden. Wegen der Revision des Jahres 1967 muBten deshalb die schon in der alten Datenbasis des Disaggregierten Prognosesystems ausgewiesenen Tabellen der Jahre 1960 - 1966 neu berechnet werden. Hier ergaben sich zum Teil erhebliche Veriinderungen 1).

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