By Stephen Ward, Chris Chapman
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Additional info for How to manage project opportunity and risk : why uncertainty management can be a much better approach than risk management
The approval process involved official ‘interveners’ making a case to receive funding from Ontario Hydro to challenge the basis of the plans. The Independent Power Producers Society of Ontario (IPPSO), representing all non-government power producers, received funding for a critical report on Ontario Hydro’s approach to strategic planning prepared by Chris Chapman (1992a). The report’s argument was in two parts. First, confidence bands on Ontario Hydro’s load forecast should have been several times wider; other uncertainties were similarly underestimated and, as a consequence of these uncertainties, the Ontario Hydro approach to strategic decision making was not fit for the intended purpose.
As in the earlier lifecycle stages, development during this stage is followed by a ‘detailed design and plan evaluation’. A ‘maybe’ decision which requires revisions to aspects of detailed designs or plans should be seen as part of the iterative process of shaping details effectively and efficiently – a planned iteration. A ‘maybe’ decision which involves changes at a strategic level to execution and delivery plans, design and operations strategy, or concept strategy, is usually extremely unwelcome, and a ‘no-go’ decision will be seen as a serious disaster in many cases.
First, an approach to corporate and operations management compatible with this book’s approach to project uncertainty management was needed as a starting point for operational development. Second, the way a utility such as Ontario Hydro has to approach the operations–corporate–projects spectrum illustrates the nature of these interdependences when a top-down strategic perspective is adopted. indd 10 20/09/11 11:54 AM U N C E R TA I N T Y I N A N D A R O U N D P R O J E C T S 11 Viewing Ontario Hydro’s uncertainty structure might start with a corporate level assessment of annual profit, Pt, equal to annual revenue, Rt, less annual costs, Ct, for t ϭ 1, 2, .