Monetary Economics in the 1990s: The Henry Thornton by Forrest Capie, Geoffrey E. Wood

By Forrest Capie, Geoffrey E. Wood

This quantity is the second one choice of the sequence of lectures, held every year at urban college, London, in honour of Henry Thornton, the popular nineteenth Century financial economist. As with financial Economics within the Eighties (0-333-46220-3), the essays by means of super eminent participants are wide-ranging in either topic and process yet all increase themes thought of through Henry Thornton over a century in the past and hyperlink ancient views to modern debates approximately monetary associations and fiscal economics.

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Additional resources for Monetary Economics in the 1990s: The Henry Thornton Lectures, Numbers 9–17

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The tax-smoothing view has implications for the interaction between inflation and budget deficits if the public debt is denominated in nominal terms. Basically, the fiscal authority's objective involves the path of tax rates and other real variables. Therefore, other things equal, a higher rate of expected inflation (presumably reflecting a higher rate of monetary growth) motivates a correspondingly higher growth rate of the nominal, interest-bearing debt. This response keeps the planned path of the real public debt invariant with expected inflation.

157-8; James Buchanan and Ricard Wagner, 1977, pp. 17, to], 130; and Martin Feldstein, 1976, p. 335). In this case, a substitution of a budget deficit for current taxes raises net wealth because the present value of the higher expected future taxes falls short of the current tax cut. It then follows that budget deficits raise aggregate consumer demand and lower desired national saving. A proper treatment of uncertainty leads to different conclusions. Louis Chan (1983) first considers the case of lump-sum taxes that have a known distribution across households.

However, the sign of these revisions would not be predictable. Thus, in the presence of uncertainty, tax smoothing implies that tax rates would behave roughly like random walks. 24 Monetary Economics in the 1990s It is possible to use the tax-smoothing approach as a positive theory of how the government operates, rather than as a normative model of how it should act.? Barro (1979, 1986) shows that this framework explains much of the behaviour of US federal deficits from 1916 to 1983, although the deficits since 1984 turn out to be substantially higher than predicted.

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